This leads to about 5 posts a day of people talking about how their WR is determined by their MM bad teams etc etc etc. This is another natural failure of the human brain where our evolutionary history has made counting beyond fingers and toes mostly useless to us until modern society and math. We have a very hard time internalizing the meaning of very large numbers. So, in what I'm sure will be an absolutely vain and pointless attempt to explain this, let's look at how you personally impact a game with 23 other people in it per match, over a very large number of matches.
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This is fairly insignificant, but it's also the only part of the game that you can control. So, if I generated a spreadsheet that had random players with skill levels all over the spectrum, then randomly selected 12 for the enemy team, and 11 for your teammates, the only not-randomly placed character here is you.
So the enemy team has 12 chances to get the unicum players, 12 chances to get the potatoes. Regardless of where the overall average is, they have an equal chance of being applied to either team, your slot excluded. So, if you consistently perform above that average, over a large enough number of games, your team has the advantage because the average skill is what gets placed in that 12th slot on the enemy team, while your 12th slot is taken up by your above-average performance.
So we will say the average skill in a match is exactly average, 50 what we'll call "skill rating", while you are a very slightly above average player The enemy team average skill is 50, while your team is This isn't a large difference, but over games WILL absolutely, positively, mathematically result in a positive WR.
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There are a few factors that can play with the math, but they are largely negligible I believe. Division play can lead to a higher WR obviously, but divisions have roughly equal chances of being placed on either team your team ever-so-slightly less if you aren't in one yourself. Also, divisions can be bad.
This goes back to confirmation bias, you remember the time a pro division had it's way with your pooper, but forget all the times you watch a fail-division march to their deaths.
Another factor would be the distribution of consumables, if you aren't playing a radar ship, your chances of having a radar ship are very slightly lower overall than the enemy team. This is being compensated for these days with WG trying to match ship-for-ship to varying degrees of success imo as well, so pretty negligible. So, overall, given a large enough pool of games, your WR does pretty accurately describe how you are doing compared to other players, as a direct representation of your skill in reference to the average.
Well said but sadly the people you are trying to reach will either not read this or forget it as soon as they get into the game. I mostly agree and nice analysis. Over the long term, random distribution of player skill in matches in the environment that most allows individual player skill to become evident. Randomness in Random match mode is, as far as I'm concerned, pretty close to a positive good.
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And then there are divisions. This is what I dislike about divisions in Randoms. A well-coordinated unicum division in queue can reduce the multidimensional randomness that most allows a solo player to make a difference, one way or another, to something closer to a single-variable coin flip - is that division on my team, or not?
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CVs are an obvious imbalance hence the impending rework , you can get a much higher win rate, as your "above average" skill will be more impactful if you are playing a CV. Again though, if you aren't the CV, the good CV has an equal chance of being on either team so this would also balance out. Everything you said can apply to either team with roughly equal chances, meaning the law of large numbers will still smooth that out. You have SLIGHTLY less impact by not playing in a division with another above-average player, and slightly less impact playing in a "weak" ship though again, WG is trying to match ship for ship now, so that also about balances out.
These seem like valid objections until you apply the same concepts I used to make the original post to them. Equal chances of getting the good CV, the good division, or the bad ones. Yes a unicum division will wreck the balance of that single game, but over a large number, they will wreck the balance roughly evenly for you as for every other player. I JUST read it. I just forgot it! Actually sounds good but I am not a math kinda guy. I gather that OP is saying play better and you will win more Ah, you know what? I've found the imbalance.
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